Why We Need a New Paradigm of Earthquake Occurrence

Like all theories in any branch of physics, theories of the seismic source should be testable (i.e., they should be formulated so that they can be objectively compared to observations and rejected if they disagree). Unfortunately, many widely held theories of the seismic source, such as the elastic rebound paradigm and characteristic earthquake model, and theories for applying them to make probabilistic statements about future seismicity, such as probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), either disagree with data or are formulated in inherently or effectively untestable ways. Researchers should recognize that this field is in a state of crisis and search for a new paradigm. 10 1Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Science, University of Tokyo, Hongo, Bunkyo‐ku, Tokyo, Japan 2Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy 3Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley; Berkeley, California, USA 0002577617.indd 183 9/5/2015 3:48:16 PM 184 SubductiON dyNamicS The Japanese government publishes a national seismic hazard map like this every year. But since 1979, earthquakes that have caused 10 or more fatalities in Japan have occurred in places it designates low risk.